Computational modelling
Eshetu Dadi Gurmu; Mengesha Dibru Firdawoke; Mekash Ayalew Mohammed
Abstract
In this paper, a nonlinear mathematical model of COVID-19 was formulated. We proposed a SEIQR model using a system of ordinary differential equations. COVID-19 free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium points of the model are obtained. A basic reproduction number of the model is investigated by the next-generation ...
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In this paper, a nonlinear mathematical model of COVID-19 was formulated. We proposed a SEIQR model using a system of ordinary differential equations. COVID-19 free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium points of the model are obtained. A basic reproduction number of the model is investigated by the next-generation matrix. The stability analysis of the model equilibrium points was investigated using basic reproduction numbers. The results show that the disease-free equilibrium of the COVID-19 model is stable if the basic reproduction number is less than unity and unstable if the basic reproduction number is greater than unity. Sensitivity analysis was rigorously analyzed. Finally, numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the results.
Data Envelopment Analysis, DEA
Hadi Shirouyehzad; Javid Jouzdani; Mazdak Khodadadi Karimvand
Abstract
There have been several major global outbreaks during the past decades, with the latest being the worst. The COVID-19 pandemic has infected hundreds of thousands and killed thousands in the world affecting most countries in around the globe. Outbreak response management efficiency can have a major impact ...
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There have been several major global outbreaks during the past decades, with the latest being the worst. The COVID-19 pandemic has infected hundreds of thousands and killed thousands in the world affecting most countries in around the globe. Outbreak response management efficiency can have a major impact on the outcome of the pandemic. Therefore, in this paper, the performance of most seriously affected countries regarding contagion control and medical treatment of COVID-19 is evaluated using data envelopment analysis. The efficiency values are calculated based on the conditions of the countries and the number of confirmed cases in the first step in order to create a basis for analysis according to the contagion control. In the second step the performance evaluation is done considering the total number of confirmed cases, the death cases, and the recovered cases to evaluate the efficiency of medical treatment in the countries. The countries are also classified into four groups using area chart, and for each group, some suggestions and analyses are presented. The results show the performance of the countries regarding the contagion control and medical treatment.
Systems and service modeling and simulation
Javid Jouzdani; Hadi Shirouyehzad
Abstract
In recent decades, several outbreaks have threatened societies and claimed many lives. Outbreak response management plays a crucial role in reducing the fatality rate and the total healthcare system cost. Among all the parameters affecting the performance of the outbreak response system, the available ...
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In recent decades, several outbreaks have threatened societies and claimed many lives. Outbreak response management plays a crucial role in reducing the fatality rate and the total healthcare system cost. Among all the parameters affecting the performance of the outbreak response system, the available resources are one of the most important. This becomes critical when the number of infected people who need such resources is substantial. In such circumstances, the system cost and the death rate may significantly rise. Therefore, in this paper, we present an analysis of the impact of the contact frequency among people during an outbreak considering the capacity of the healthcare system expressed as the total number of hospital beds following a systems dynamics approach. We investigate the case of the novel Coronavirus, known as COVID-19, in Iran for which the results indicate the circumstances under which the healthcare system may become exhausted, and a catastrophe may occur. Finally, some suggestions are made based on the analysis of the results to avoid such circumstances.
