%0 Journal Article
%T A Mathematical Model on the Spread of COVID-19
%J Journal of Applied Research on Industrial Engineering
%I Research Expansion Alliance (REA) on behalf of Ayandegan Institute of Higher Education
%Z 2538-5100
%A Gurmu, Eshetu Dadi
%A Firdawoke, Mengesha Dibru
%A Mohammed, Mekash Ayalew
%D 2023
%\ 07/17/2023
%V
%N
%P -
%! A Mathematical Model on the Spread of COVID-19
%K COVID-19
%K Pandemic
%K Reproduction number
%K Stability Analysis
%K the Equilibrium point
%R 10.22105/jarie.2023.385542.1531
%X In this paper, a nonlinear mathematical model of COVID-19 was formulated. We proposed a SEIQR model using a system of ordinary differential equations. COVID-19 free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium points of the model are obtained. A basic reproduction number of the model is investigated by the next-generation matrix. The stability analysis of the model equilibrium points was investigated using basic reproduction numbers. The results show that the disease-free equilibrium of the COVID-19 model is stable if the basic reproduction number is less than unity and unstable if the basic reproduction number is greater than unity. Sensitivity analysis was rigorously analyzed. Finally, numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the results.
%U https://www.journal-aprie.com/article_175422_16fe10be83210c755766b62a8fa45146.pdf