Document Type : Research Paper


Assistant professor of Statistics, Iran Banking Institute, Central Bank of Iran, Tehran, Iran.


The change point problem arises in various practical fields such as Epidemiology, Toxicology, Medical, Economical surveys, Quality control, Statistical process control, Natural events, Demography and Mortality. The aim of this study is to detect location and time of change point in Poisson regression model. We assume for years before and after , has a Poisson distribution with means and , respectively. We used several methods for estimation change point in real mortality data by assume Poisson regression model. Using two simulated and real data analysis showed that the change point has been occurred in year 1993 and this confirmed by all methods. Our findings have shown that the change pattern of mortality trend in Iran is related to improvement of health indicators and decreasing mortality rate in Iran.


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